Government Political Orientation and Listed Stocks’ Return: Experiences from Pakistani Agri-Tractor Manufacturer Companies

Abstract

Pakistan, being developing, mostly dependent on its agriculture sector by engaging 65 percent of its population in this sector either direct or indirect. The sector has a significant contribution to the GDP of the economy (i.e. 21.40 percent of the total GDP). However, little has been researched in the context of the stock returns during different government power regimes to understand the power influences as evidenced in the developed world markets. The study applies exploratory data analysis to the daily stocks, and their benchmark returns data for the period 23 November 2002 to 31 May 2019. The dataset further divided into seven datasets based on each power regimes to understand behaviours in isolations. As PTI still has left with its remaining four years to be in power, therefore, comparing stocks return performance to the other parties’ power regimes seems to be biased. However, the stock return performances during the PTI power regime show more resemblance to the CTGs than the mainstream political parties. If ranked, the PML-Q could be placed on the high returns’ volatility side and PML-N on the low-volatility, whereas PPP in the mid. However, the stock return performances during the PTI power regime show more resemblance to the CTGs than the mainstream political parties. If ranked, the PML-Q could be placed on the high returns’ volatility side and PML-N on the low-volatility, whereas PPP in the mid. However, the variations are minor among the regimes in the context of stock return fluctuations. Overall, the stocks showed extreme fluctuation during all major political parties' power regimes except PTI.