Enegy Resilience Assessment Model Based on Risk Matrix Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulatation for Large-Scale Solar Photovoltoic Plant

Abstract

Energy resilience has emerged as one of the most critical components in ensuring the world's energy supply stability and security, particularly a large-scale solar (LSS) photovoltaic plant. However, there is a missing standard and proper approach for comprehensively assessing the resilience of any energy system for large-scale solar. The main objective of this paper is to develop an energy resilience assessment model and to analyze the assessment of the energy resilience for large-scale solar using risk matrix analysis and the Monte Carlo simulation method. At first, the types of risk to be considered in assessing the impact of a LSS photovoltaic (PV) plant in Malaysia were identified through an interview session with the operator of the plant, and then the risk probability and risk impact for each risk type was assessed by providing a score. Next, the energy resilience index was analysed by calculating the risk rating to indicate the resilience of the energy system is either sustainable, moderate, severe or critical. Then, the base model of the energy resilience was expanded to perform a Monte Carlo simulation for considering uncertainty in the input of the risk matrix. After comparing those two models, it is observed that the results for the overall risk rating for the solar farm are in the “Moderate” level when risk matrix analysis was performed deterministically, meanwhile “Severe” level when Monte Carlo simulation was performed. The proposed risk matrix analysis in this paper help the developer and operator of the LSS photovoltaic plant in making decisions and counter measures to improve the energy resilience of the solar PV plant.